{
  "aliases": null,
  "backlinks": null,
  "body": "\n## Proof\n\nWe apply the defining property of the conditional expectation to the whole space.\n\n1. Let $Z = E[X \\mid \\mathcal{G}]$ be a [[conditional expectation|0YAMJRK04E]] of $X$ given $\\mathcal{G}$. By definition, $Z$ is integrable and $\\mathcal{G}$-measurable.\n2. The definition also gives $E[Z \\, 1_G] = E[X \\, 1_G]$ for each $G \\in \\mathcal{G}$.\n3. A [[σ-algebra|04WSW8T3SY]] on $\\Omega$ contains $\\Omega$. So $\\Omega \\in \\mathcal{G}$, and step 2 applies with $G = \\Omega$.\n4. The indicator $1_\\Omega$ is the constant $1$. So step 3 reads $E[Z] = E[X]$, where $E$ is the [[expected value|0DCT0QZVQ1]].\n5. Two versions of $E[X \\mid \\mathcal{G}]$ are equal almost surely, so they have the same expectation. Thus step 4 does not depend on the choice of $Z$, and $E[E[X \\mid \\mathcal{G}]] = E[X]$.\n6. Let $Y$ be a random variable on the same space. By definition, $E[X \\mid Y] = E[X \\mid \\sigma(Y)]$, and $\\sigma(Y) \\subseteq \\mathcal{F}$ is a σ-algebra.\n7. Step 5 with $\\mathcal{G} = \\sigma(Y)$ gives $E[E[X \\mid Y]] = E[X]$.\n\n## Idea\n\nThe conditional expectation is built so that it has the same average as $X$ on every event of $\\mathcal{G}$. The whole space $\\Omega$ is one of these events, and the average over $\\Omega$ is the ordinary expectation.\n",
  "commit": "4a3290d299c8b2cd6493fce2296920ba7f82d942",
  "front": {
    "kind": "proof",
    "msc": [
      "60A10"
    ],
    "name": "Proof of the law of total expectation",
    "proves": "04RRB6HM00",
    "sources": [
      {
        "locator": "Proof in the general case",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_total_expectation"
      }
    ],
    "tag": "S7QN85FN4J",
    "uses": [
      "0YAMJRK04E",
      "0DCT0QZVQ1",
      "04WSW8T3SY"
    ]
  },
  "kind": "proof",
  "link": "https://math2.tamnd.com/node/S7QN85FN4J/",
  "links": [
    {
      "field": "proves",
      "target": "04RRB6HM00"
    },
    {
      "field": "uses",
      "target": "0YAMJRK04E"
    },
    {
      "field": "uses",
      "target": "0DCT0QZVQ1"
    },
    {
      "field": "uses",
      "target": "04WSW8T3SY"
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "https://math2.tamnd.com/node/S7QN85FN4J.md",
  "msc": [
    "60A10"
  ],
  "name": "Proof of the law of total expectation",
  "prov": null,
  "role": "",
  "source": "https://github.com/tamnd/math2/blob/main/nodes/S7Q/S7QN85FN4J.md",
  "status": null,
  "tag": "S7QN85FN4J",
  "uri": "m2://S7QN85FN4J",
  "url": "https://math2.tamnd.com/wiki/proof-of-the-law-of-total-expectation/",
  "writing": {
    "tag": "S7QN85FN4J",
    "kind": "proof",
    "level": "W0",
    "next": [
      {
        "what": "an inventory row",
        "note": "the row of the inventory that the node accounts for",
        "have": 0,
        "want": 1
      }
    ]
  }
}
