Math 2.0

statement proposition

Tail sum formula for expectation

Statement

Let XX be a random variable with values in [0,∞)[0, \infty). Then E[X]=∫0∞P(X>t) dt,E[X] = \int_0^\infty P(X > t) \, dt, with both sides in [0,∞][0, \infty]. If XX takes values in {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}, then E[X]=∑n=1∞P(X≥n).E[X] = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} P(X \ge n).

Remarks

The proof writes X=∫0∞1{X>t} dtX = \int_0^\infty 1_{\{X > t\}} \, dt and exchanges expectation and integral by Tonelli's theorem. In terms of the cumulative distribution function FF, the first formula reads E[X]=∫0∞(1−F(t)) dtE[X] = \int_0^\infty (1 - F(t)) \, dt. For X∼Exp⁡(λ)X \sim \operatorname{Exp}(\lambda), the formula gives E[X]=∫0∞e−λt dt=1/λE[X] = \int_0^\infty e^{-\lambda t} \, dt = 1/\lambda.

Explanations

L1 human

You can compute an average by adding the chances that XX passes each level. For a count XX, each n≤Xn \le X adds 11 to XX, and it does so with probability P(X≥n)P(X \ge n).

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Sources

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value, Tail-sum formula