Math 2.0

Probability theory and stochastic processes Foundations: probability spaces and events Counterexample

Borel–Kolmogorov paradox

Builds on Probability measureSpherical coordinatesProbability density functionConditional probability distributionRegular conditional probability

Counterexample

Let PP be the uniform probability measure on the unit sphere S2⊂ℝ3S^2 \subset \R^3. Describe a point by its longitude λ∈(−π,π]\lambda \in (-\pi, \pi] and its latitude φ∈[−π/2,π/2]\varphi \in [-\pi/2, \pi/2], as in spherical coordinates. The area element of S2S^2 is cos⁡φ dλ dφ\cos \varphi \, d\lambda \, d\varphi, so under PP the pair (λ,φ)(\lambda, \varphi) has the density 14πcos⁡φ\frac{1}{4\pi} \cos \varphi. Hence λ\lambda and φ\varphi are independent, λ\lambda is uniform on (−π,π](-\pi, \pi], and φ\varphi has density 12cos⁡φ\frac{1}{2} \cos \varphi.

Condition on the event {φ=0}\{\varphi = 0\}, the equator. The conditional distribution of λ\lambda given φ=0\varphi = 0 is the law of λ\lambda, which is uniform. So the point is uniform on the equator.

Now let Θ=λ mod π∈[0,π)\Theta = \lambda \bmod \pi \in [0, \pi) and condition on the event {Θ=0}\{\Theta = 0\}, the great circle through the two poles. Since Θ\Theta is independent of φ\varphi, the conditional distribution of φ\varphi given Θ=0\Theta = 0 still has density 12cos⁡φ\frac{1}{2} \cos \varphi. So the point is not uniform on this great circle: it is rarely near the poles.

A rotation of the sphere maps the equator onto the great circle through the poles and preserves PP. Yet the two conditional laws on these two great circles are not images of each other under the rotation.

Remarks

Both events have probability 00. The conditional law given a null event depends on the random variable whose level set it is, not on the event alone. A regular conditional probability given φ\varphi, or given Θ\Theta, is defined only up to null sets of values, so it fixes no answer for a single null event.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 8 pages in order. The foundations come first.

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Each page uses the pages above it. The colour of the bar on a box shows how strong the evidence is, and the box also gives it as text. The list has the same pages.
  • no evidence level
  1. Conditional probability distribution concept
  2. Euclidean space object
  3. Probability density function concept
  4. Probability measure concept
  5. Regular conditional probability concept
  6. Polar coordinates concept
  7. Spherical coordinates concept
  8. Borel–Kolmogorov paradox counterexample

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borel%E2%80%93Kolmogorov_paradox
About this page
Tag9RMS0ZJ618
URIm2://9RMS0ZJ618
Kindcounterexample
WritingW0 stub
MSC60A05, 60A10
UsesProbability measure, Spherical coordinates, Probability density function, Conditional probability distribution, Regular conditional probability
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Changed2 November 2026

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