Math 2.0

Probability theory and stochastic processes Example

Ehrenfest model

Builds on Markov chainStationary distributionDetailed balanceBinomial distribution

Example

Let N≥1N \ge 1 balls be distributed between two urns. At each step one of the NN balls is chosen uniformly at random and moved to the other urn. Let XnX_n be the number of balls in the first urn after nn steps. Then (Xn)(X_n) is a Markov chain on {0,1,…,N}\set{0, 1, \dots, N} with transition probabilities P(k,k−1)=kN,P(k,k+1)=N−kN.P(k, k - 1) = \frac{k}{N}, \qquad P(k, k + 1) = \frac{N - k}{N}. This is the Ehrenfest model, introduced by Paul and Tatiana Ehrenfest in 1907.

Check that the binomial distribution π(k)=(Nk)2−N\pi(k) = \binom{N}{k} 2^{-N} is a stationary distribution. It satisfies detailed balance: π(k)P(k,k+1)=(Nk)N−kN2−N=(Nk+1)k+1N2−N=π(k+1)P(k+1,k)\pi(k) P(k, k + 1) = \binom{N}{k} \frac{N - k}{N} 2^{-N} = \binom{N}{k + 1} \frac{k + 1}{N} 2^{-N} = \pi(k + 1) P(k + 1, k). Summing detailed balance over kk gives ∑kπ(k)P(k,j)=π(j)\sum_k \pi(k) P(k, j) = \pi(j) for every jj.

Remarks

The chain is irreducible with period 22, since XnX_n changes parity at each step. The drift toward the middle is linear: 𝔼[Xn+1−N2∣Xn]=(1−2N)(Xn−N2)\mathbb{E}[X_{n+1} - \frac N2 \mid X_n] = (1 - \frac2N)(X_n - \frac N2), so the mean approaches N/2N/2 exponentially fast. By Kac's formula for an irreducible chain, the expected return time to a state kk is 1/π(k)1/\pi(k). So the chain started with all balls in one urn returns there after 2N2^N steps on average. For even NN, it returns to the balanced state N/2N/2 after about πN/2\sqrt{\pi N / 2} steps on average. For NN of the order of the number of molecules in a gas, 2N2^N is far beyond any physical time, which reconciles the observed irreversibility with recurrence.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 5 pages in order. The foundations come first.

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  1. Binomial distribution concept
  2. Detailed balance concept
  3. Markov chain concept
  4. Stationary distribution concept
  5. Ehrenfest model example

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehrenfest_model
About this page
TagD4DJXF8Q6S
URIm2://D4DJXF8Q6S
Kindexample
WritingW0 stub
MSC60J10, 82C03
Instance ofMarkov chain
UsesMarkov chain, Stationary distribution, Detailed balance, Binomial distribution
Same as
Changed3 November 2026

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