Math 2.0

statement proposition

Monotonicity of probability

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P) be a probability space and let A,B∈FA, B \in \mathcal{F} be events with A⊆BA \subseteq B. Then P(A)≤P(B)P(A) \le P(B). More precisely, P(B∖A)=P(B)−P(A)P(B \setminus A) = P(B) - P(A).

Remarks

The proof: BB is the disjoint union of AA and B∖AB \setminus A, so P(B)=P(A)+P(B∖A)P(B) = P(A) + P(B \setminus A), and P(B∖A)≥0P(B \setminus A) \ge 0. With B=ΩB = \Omega, monotonicity gives P(A)≤1P(A) \le 1 for each event AA. If AA implies BB, then BB is at least as likely as AA. For example, "the die shows 66" is at most as likely as "the die shows an even number".

Explanations

L1 human

A bigger event contains more outcomes, so it cannot be less likely. The chance to draw a heart from a deck is at most the chance to draw a red card, because every heart is red.

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Sources

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_axioms, Elementary consequences