Math 2.0

Probability theory and stochastic processes Proof

Proof of the formula for the variance as the mean of the square minus the square of the mean

Builds on Expected valueVarianceLinearity of expectation

Proof

We expand the square and use linearity of expectation.

  1. Let XX be a real random variable with E[X2]<∞E[X^2] < \infty.
  2. For each real xx, (∣x∣−1)2≥0(\abs{x} - 1)^2 \ge 0, so ∣x∣≤(1+x2)/2\abs{x} \le (1 + x^2)/2.
  3. Hence 0≤∣X∣≤(1+X2)/20 \le \abs{X} \le (1 + X^2)/2. The integral of nonnegative functions is monotone, so the expected value E[∣X∣]E[\abs{X}] is at most (1+E[X2])/2<∞(1 + E[X^2])/2 < \infty.
  4. So XX is integrable. Let m=E[X]m = E[X], a real number. The variance of XX is E[(X−m)2]E[(X - m)^2].
  5. Pointwise, (X−m)2=X2−2mX+m2(X - m)^2 = X^2 - 2mX + m^2.
  6. The variables X2X^2, XX and the constant m2m^2 are integrable. By linearity of expectation, E[(X−m)2]=E[X2]−2mE[X]+m2E[(X - m)^2] = E[X^2] - 2m E[X] + m^2.
  7. Since E[X]=mE[X] = m, the right side is E[X2]−2m2+m2=E[X2]−m2E[X^2] - 2m^2 + m^2 = E[X^2] - m^2.
  8. So Var⁡(X)=E[X2]−(E[X])2\operatorname{Var}(X) = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2.

Idea

Square out (X−m)2(X - m)^2 and take the expectation of each term. The cross term gives −2m2-2m^2, which cancels the constant m2m^2 down to −m2-m^2.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 46 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  2. Element definition
  3. Integers object
  4. Ordered field definition
  5. Proposition concept
  6. Random experiment concept
  7. Rational numbers object
  8. Real numbers object
  9. Set definition
  10. Ring of integers statement
  11. Disjunction definition
  12. Implication definition
  13. Predicate definition
  14. Ordered pair definition
  15. Union definition
  16. Sample space definition
  17. The rationals form a field statement
  18. Existential quantifier definition
  19. Universal quantifier definition
  20. Cartesian product definition
  21. Subset definition
  22. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  23. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  24. Binary relation definition
  25. Universal set definition
  26. Order on the reals definition
  27. Power set definition
  28. Complement definition
  29. Function definition
  30. Interval definition
  31. Injective function definition
  32. Preimage of a set definition
  33. Sigma-algebra definition
  34. Countable set definition
  35. Event definition
  36. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  37. Probability axioms concept
  38. Probability measure definition
  39. Probability space definition
  40. Random variable definition
  41. Discrete random variable definition
  42. Random variable with a density definition
  43. Expected value definition
  44. Linearity of expectation statement
  45. Variance definition
  46. Proof of the formula for the variance as the mean of the square minus the square of the mean proof

Where this leads

2 pages build on this one.

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance, Definition
About this page
TagH81VD38Y1B
URIm2://H81VD38Y1B
Kindproof
WritingW0 stub
MSC60A05
ProvesVariance as the mean of the square minus the square of the mean
UsesExpected value, Variance, Linearity of expectation
Changed4 November 2026

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