Math 2.0

Probability theory and stochastic processes Proof

Proof of the law of total expectation

Builds on Conditional expectationExpected valueSigma-algebra

Proof

We apply the defining property of the conditional expectation to the whole space.

  1. Let Z=E[X∣𝒢]Z = E[X \mid \mathcal{G}] be a conditional expectation of XX given 𝒢\mathcal{G}. By definition, ZZ is integrable and 𝒢\mathcal{G}-measurable.
  2. The definition also gives E[Z 1G]=E[X 1G]E[Z \, 1_G] = E[X \, 1_G] for each G∈𝒢G \in \mathcal{G}.
  3. A σ-algebra on Ω\Omega contains Ω\Omega. So Ω∈𝒢\Omega \in \mathcal{G}, and step 2 applies with G=ΩG = \Omega.
  4. The indicator 1Ω1_\Omega is the constant 11. So step 3 reads E[Z]=E[X]E[Z] = E[X], where EE is the expected value.
  5. Two versions of E[X∣𝒢]E[X \mid \mathcal{G}] are equal almost surely, so they have the same expectation. Thus step 4 does not depend on the choice of ZZ, and E[E[X∣𝒢]]=E[X]E[E[X \mid \mathcal{G}]] = E[X].
  6. Let YY be a random variable on the same space. By definition, E[X∣Y]=E[X∣σ(Y)]E[X \mid Y] = E[X \mid \sigma(Y)], and σ(Y)⊆ℱ\sigma(Y) \subseteq \mathcal{F} is a σ-algebra.
  7. Step 5 with 𝒢=σ(Y)\mathcal{G} = \sigma(Y) gives E[E[X∣Y]]=E[X]E[E[X \mid Y]] = E[X].

Idea

The conditional expectation is built so that it has the same average as XX on every event of 𝒢\mathcal{G}. The whole space Ω\Omega is one of these events, and the average over Ω\Omega is the ordinary expectation.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 46 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  2. Element definition
  3. Integers object
  4. Ordered field definition
  5. Proposition concept
  6. Random experiment concept
  7. Rational numbers object
  8. Real numbers object
  9. Set definition
  10. Ring of integers statement
  11. Disjunction definition
  12. Implication definition
  13. Predicate definition
  14. Ordered pair definition
  15. Union definition
  16. Sample space definition
  17. The rationals form a field statement
  18. Existential quantifier definition
  19. Universal quantifier definition
  20. Cartesian product definition
  21. Subset definition
  22. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  23. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  24. Binary relation definition
  25. Universal set definition
  26. Order on the reals definition
  27. Power set definition
  28. Complement definition
  29. Function definition
  30. Interval definition
  31. Injective function definition
  32. Preimage of a set definition
  33. Sigma-algebra definition
  34. Countable set definition
  35. Event definition
  36. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  37. Probability axioms concept
  38. Probability measure definition
  39. Probability space definition
  40. Conditional probability definition
  41. Random variable definition
  42. Discrete random variable definition
  43. Random variable with a density definition
  44. Expected value definition
  45. Conditional expectation definition
  46. Proof of the law of total expectation proof

Where this leads

3 pages build on this one.

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_total_expectation, Proof in the general case
About this page
TagS7QN85FN4J
URIm2://S7QN85FN4J
Kindproof
WritingW0 stub
MSC60A10
ProvesLaw of total expectation
UsesConditional expectation, Expected value, Sigma-algebra
Changed4 November 2026

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