Probability theory and stochastic processes Proof
Proof of the law of total expectation
Builds on Conditional expectationExpected valueSigma-algebra
Proof
We apply the defining property of the conditional expectation to the whole space.
- Let be a conditional expectation of given . By definition, is integrable and -measurable.
- The definition also gives for each .
- A σ-algebra on contains . So , and step 2 applies with .
- The indicator is the constant . So step 3 reads , where is the expected value.
- Two versions of are equal almost surely, so they have the same expectation. Thus step 4 does not depend on the choice of , and .
- Let be a random variable on the same space. By definition, , and is a σ-algebra.
- Step 5 with gives .
Idea
The conditional expectation is built so that it has the same average as on every event of . The whole space is one of these events, and the average over is the ordinary expectation.
Reading path
To understand this page from the ground up, read these 46 pages in order. The foundations come first.
- Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
- Element definition
- Integers object
- Ordered field definition
- Proposition concept
- Random experiment concept
- Rational numbers object
- Real numbers object
- Set definition
- Ring of integers statement
- Disjunction definition
- Implication definition
- Predicate definition
- Ordered pair definition
- Union definition
- Sample space definition
- The rationals form a field statement
- Existential quantifier definition
- Universal quantifier definition
- Cartesian product definition
- Subset definition
- The rationals form an ordered field statement
- Uniqueness quantifier definition
- Binary relation definition
- Universal set definition
- Order on the reals definition
- Power set definition
- Complement definition
- Function definition
- Interval definition
- Injective function definition
- Preimage of a set definition
- Sigma-algebra definition
- Countable set definition
- Event definition
- Borel sigma-algebra definition
- Probability axioms concept
- Probability measure definition
- Probability space definition
- Conditional probability definition
- Random variable definition
- Discrete random variable definition
- Random variable with a density definition
- Expected value definition
- Conditional expectation definition
- Proof of the law of total expectation proof
Where this leads
3 pages build on this one.
Further reading
- Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_total_expectation, Proof in the general case
About this page
| Tag | S7QN85FN4J |
|---|---|
| URI | m2://S7QN85FN4J |
| Kind | proof |
| Writing | W0 stub |
| MSC | 60A10 |
| Proves | Law of total expectation |
| Uses | Conditional expectation, Expected value, Sigma-algebra |
| Changed | 4 November 2026 |
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