Math 2.0

Probability theory and stochastic processes Proof

Proof of the mean of the binomial distribution by direct summation

Builds on Binomial distributionProbability mass functionLaw of a random variableExpected valueLaw of the unconscious statisticianIntegral of a non-negative functionLebesgue integralSimple functionBinomial coefficientFactorial formula for binomial coefficientsBinomial theorem

Proof

We first express E[X]E[X] as a finite sum, then evaluate the sum with the binomial theorem.

  1. Let n≥1n \ge 1, p∈[0,1]p \in [0, 1], q=1−pq = 1 - p and S={0,1,…,n}S = \set{0, 1, \dots, n}. Let p(k)=(nk)pkqn−kp(k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k} for k∈Sk \in S.
  2. Let μ\mu be the law of XX. Since XX has the binomial distribution, μ(B)=∑k∈B∩Sp(k)\mu(B) = \sum_{k \in B \cap S} p(k) for each Borel set B⊆ℝB \subseteq \R. In particular μ({k})=p(k)\mu(\set{k}) = p(k) for k∈Sk \in S.
  3. Let h ⁣:ℝ→[0,∞)h \colon \R \to [0, \infty) be Borel measurable. We show ∫ℝh dμ=∑k∈Sh(k) p(k)\int_\R h \, d\mu = \sum_{k \in S} h(k) \, p(k), using the integral of a non-negative function.
  4. Let s=∑i=1mai𝟏Ais = \sum_{i=1}^{m} a_i \mathbf{1}_{A_i} be a simple function with 0≤s≤h0 \le s \le h, ai≥0a_i \ge 0 and pairwise disjoint Borel sets AiA_i. By step 2, ∫s dμ=∑iai∑k∈Ai∩Sp(k)\int s \, d\mu = \sum_{i} a_i \sum_{k \in A_i \cap S} p(k).
  5. Each k∈Sk \in S lies in at most one AiA_i, and s(k)=ais(k) = a_i when k∈Aik \in A_i. So the sum in step 4 equals ∑k∈Ss(k) p(k)≤∑k∈Sh(k) p(k)\sum_{k \in S} s(k) \, p(k) \le \sum_{k \in S} h(k) \, p(k).
  6. Taking the supremum over all such ss gives ∫h dμ≤∑k∈Sh(k) p(k)\int h \, d\mu \le \sum_{k \in S} h(k) \, p(k).
  7. The function s0=∑k∈Sh(k)𝟏{k}s_0 = \sum_{k \in S} h(k) \mathbf{1}_{\set{k}} is simple, with disjoint Borel sets {k}\set{k}, and 0≤s0≤h0 \le s_0 \le h. Its integral is ∑k∈Sh(k) p(k)\sum_{k \in S} h(k) \, p(k). So equality holds in step 6.
  8. Apply step 3 to h(x)=∣x∣h(x) = \abs{x}. This gives ∫∣x∣ μ(dx)=∑k=0nk p(k)<∞\int \abs{x} \, \mu(dx) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k \, p(k) < \infty.
  9. By the law of the unconscious statistician with g(x)=xg(x) = x, XX is integrable and E[X]=∫ℝx μ(dx)E[X] = \int_\R x \, \mu(dx).
  10. By the definition of the Lebesgue integral, ∫x μ(dx)=∫x+ μ(dx)−∫x− μ(dx)\int x \, \mu(dx) = \int x^+ \, \mu(dx) - \int x^- \, \mu(dx), with x+=max⁡(x,0)x^+ = \max(x, 0) and x−=max⁡(−x,0)x^- = \max(-x, 0).
  11. On SS we have x+=xx^+ = x and x−=0x^- = 0. Step 3 gives ∫x+ dμ=∑k=0nk p(k)\int x^+ \, d\mu = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k \, p(k) and ∫x− dμ=0\int x^- \, d\mu = 0. So E[X]=∑k=0nk(nk)pkqn−kE[X] = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}, the first equality.
  12. The term with k=0k = 0 is zero. Let 1≤k≤n1 \le k \le n. By the factorial formula for binomial coefficients, k(nk)=n!(k−1)! (n−k)!=n(n−1k−1)k \binom{n}{k} = \dfrac{n!}{(k-1)! \, (n-k)!} = n \binom{n-1}{k-1}, since (n−1)−(k−1)=n−k(n-1) - (k-1) = n - k.
  13. So E[X]=∑k=1nn(n−1k−1)pkqn−kE[X] = \sum_{k=1}^{n} n \binom{n-1}{k-1} p^k q^{n-k}. Put j=k−1j = k - 1, so that n−k=(n−1)−jn - k = (n - 1) - j. Then E[X]=np∑j=0n−1(n−1j)pjq(n−1)−jE[X] = np \sum_{j=0}^{n-1} \binom{n-1}{j} p^j q^{(n-1)-j}.
  14. By the binomial theorem with exponent n−1≥0n - 1 \ge 0, the last sum is (p+q)n−1=1n−1=1(p + q)^{n-1} = 1^{n-1} = 1.
  15. Hence E[X]=npE[X] = np.

Idea

For a distribution on finitely many points, the expectation is the weighted sum ∑kk p(k)\sum_k k \, p(k). The identity k(nk)=n(n−1k−1)k \binom{n}{k} = n \binom{n-1}{k-1} pulls out a factor npnp. What is left is the full sum of the Bin⁡(n−1,p)\operatorname{Bin}(n - 1, p) probabilities, which is 11 by the binomial theorem.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 73 pages in order. The foundations come first. The path takes the proofs Proof of Pascal's rule from the recursive definition, Proof of the factorial formula for binomial coefficients by induction, Proof of the binomial theorem by induction.

  1. Binomial coefficient definition
  2. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  3. Element definition
  4. Extended real number line object
  5. Factorial definition
  6. Group concept
  7. Integers object
  8. Integrable function concept
  9. Integral of a non-negative function concept
  10. Measurable function concept
  11. Measure space concept
  12. Ordered field definition
  13. Proposition concept
  14. Random experiment concept
  15. Rational numbers object
  16. Real numbers object
  17. Set bounded above definition
  18. Simple function concept
  19. Proof of Pascal's rule from the recursive definition proof
  20. Set definition
  21. Ring definition
  22. Ring of integers statement
  23. Lebesgue integral definition
  24. Disjunction definition
  25. Implication definition
  26. Predicate definition
  27. Bernoulli trial concept
  28. Supremum definition
  29. Pascal's rule statement
  30. Ordered pair definition
  31. Commutative ring definition
  32. Union definition
  33. Existential quantifier definition
  34. Sample space definition
  35. Universal quantifier definition
  36. The rationals form a field statement
  37. Integral of a non-negative function definition
  38. Cartesian product definition
  39. Proof of the factorial formula for binomial coefficients by induction proof
  40. Subset definition
  41. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  42. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  43. Binary relation definition
  44. Universal set definition
  45. Factorial formula for binomial coefficients statement
  46. Power set definition
  47. Order on the reals definition
  48. Proof of the binomial theorem by induction proof
  49. Function definition
  50. Complement definition
  51. Interval definition
  52. Binomial theorem statement
  53. Injective function definition
  54. Preimage of a set definition
  55. Sigma-algebra definition
  56. Countable set definition
  57. Event definition
  58. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  59. Probability axioms concept
  60. Probability measure definition
  61. Probability distribution definition
  62. Probability space definition
  63. Random variable definition
  64. Cumulative distribution function definition
  65. Discrete random variable definition
  66. Law of a random variable definition
  67. Random variable with a density definition
  68. Probability mass function definition
  69. Expected value definition
  70. Probability density function definition
  71. Law of the unconscious statistician statement
  72. Binomial distribution definition
  73. Proof of the mean of the binomial distribution by direct summation proof

Where this leads

1 page builds on this one.

Further reading

  1. Web https://proofwiki.org/wiki/Expectation_of_Binomial_Distribution
About this page
Tag1RDH6N4W2J
URIm2://1RDH6N4W2J
Kindproof
WritingW0 stub
MSC60E05
ProvesExpectation with respect to the binomial distribution
UsesBinomial distribution, Probability mass function, Law of a random variable, Expected value, Law of the unconscious statistician, Integral of a non-negative function, Lebesgue integral, Simple function, Binomial coefficient, Factorial formula for binomial coefficients, Binomial theorem
Changed4 November 2026

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